VDSC: Mức tăng trưởng lợi nhuận của các doanh nghiệp quý IV có thể thấp nhất một năm
The growth momentum of corporate earnings on the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange (HoSE) is showing signs of cooling as the market approaches the final quarter of the 2026 fiscal year. According to the latest projection report from Viet Dragon Securities Corporation (VDSC), net profit growth for listed enterprises in the fourth quarter is expected to decelerate to approximately 24% year-on-year. While this remains a double-digit expansion, it marks the lowest growth rate recorded since the third quarter of 2025, signaling a potential shift in the macroeconomic landscape that investors must navigate as the year concludes.
Contextualizing the Earnings Trajectory
To understand the current slowdown, one must look at the performance of the preceding periods. The third quarter of 2026 served as a robust pillar for the market, with aggregate net profits of HoSE-listed companies surging by 53% compared to the same period in 2025. This impressive performance was underpinned by a confluence of favorable macroeconomic indicators. Key sectors—most notably banking, construction, industrial materials, and technology—maintained strong growth trajectories, benefiting from stable credit growth and a rebound in infrastructure investment.
The real estate sector, which had struggled with liquidity constraints in previous cycles, emerged as a surprising leader in the third quarter, reporting a 32% improvement in profitability. This recovery was significantly bolstered by the performance of major players like Vingroup and Vinhomes, which successfully navigated inventory turnover challenges. However, as the economy enters the final quarter, the "high base effect"—a statistical phenomenon where year-on-year growth becomes harder to achieve because the comparative figures from the previous year were already quite high—begins to weigh on the data.
Sectoral Analysis: Winners and Laggards
The earnings landscape in the fourth quarter is not uniform, with distinct disparities between sectors. VDSC’s analysis suggests a bifurcation in performance driven by both operational costs and shifting consumer demand.
Banking and Finance
Banking, typically the heartbeat of the HoSE, continues to demonstrate resilience. Despite the overall market deceleration, the banking sector is expected to maintain steady double-digit growth. Analysts note that banks have successfully managed net interest margins (NIM) while keeping non-performing loans (NPLs) under control. However, the pace of expansion is moderating as credit demand begins to normalize after the aggressive lending seen earlier in the year.
Consumer Goods and Retail
Retail and consumer staples, which had previously relied on volume growth to drive profits, are now facing a different challenge. The current trend shows that profit gains are being driven more by price increases than by actual volume expansion. This indicates that consumer purchasing power is being tested by inflation, and the margin peaks for many retail firms likely occurred in mid-2026. Consequently, firms in this sector are expected to see a tempering of profit growth in the fourth quarter as they balance pricing power against the risk of volume attrition.
Energy and Oil & Gas
The energy sector, particularly thermal power, is projected to record high profit growth. This is attributed to consistent electricity consumption and stable selling prices. Conversely, the oil and gas sector—specifically upstream and midstream companies—faces a more complex outlook. Reports indicate lower-than-anticipated earnings for some firms due to one-off operational costs. However, VDSC analysts emphasize that these expenses are largely non-recurring in nature. With a healthy pipeline of projects and sustained demand for maintenance services, the sector is expected to remain a key contributor to overall market revenue, provided that operational efficiency improves toward the end of the year.
Strategic Implications and Market Outlook
The slowdown in profit growth has triggered a cautious response from analysts. SSI Research, in alignment with VDSC’s findings, has warned that the fourth quarter may see a continued deceleration in earnings. Beyond the "high base effect," another critical factor is the conservative approach of corporate management teams. Many companies that have already surpassed their annual profit targets within the first nine months of the year are opting to front-load expenses or increase provisioning in the fourth quarter.
This strategy, while dampening short-term reported earnings, is generally viewed by institutional investors as a sign of financial prudence. By clearing the books of potential liabilities or investing in maintenance and R&D before the new fiscal year, these firms are positioning themselves for a more stable performance in 2027.
Macroeconomic Factors and Investor Sentiment
The broader macroeconomic environment remains a significant variable. The cooling of profit growth reflects a shift from the post-pandemic recovery phase, where gains were easy to come by, to a more mature growth environment.
- Monetary Policy: With interest rates stabilizing, the pressure on corporate debt service costs has eased compared to 2024. However, the focus has shifted toward operational efficiency and top-line revenue growth.
- Global Trade Sensitivity: Companies linked to global commodity prices and exports remain vulnerable to external volatility. The "high base" in the retail and commodity sectors mentioned by SSI Research highlights how global demand fluctuations directly impact the bottom line of domestic firms.
- Infrastructure Investment: The government’s continued commitment to public investment serves as a floor for the construction and industrial materials sectors. As these projects move toward completion, the revenue recognition cycle will play a vital role in determining fourth-quarter results.
Summary of Future Projections
While the projected 24% growth for the fourth quarter represents a moderation compared to the highs of Q3 2026, it is essential to maintain perspective. A 24% year-on-year increase in aggregate net profits remains a strong performance by historical standards. The market is not necessarily facing a contraction, but rather a transition to a more sustainable, albeit slower, pace of growth.
The primary takeaway for investors is that the "easy money" phase of the recovery has largely concluded. In the coming months, performance will be driven by company-specific factors: the ability to maintain margins in the face of inflationary pressure, the strategic use of excess cash for non-recurring expenses, and the success of long-term capital projects.
As the year draws to a close, the focus of the investment community will shift from raw quarterly earnings numbers to the guidance provided by firms for the 2027 fiscal year. The market’s reaction will likely hinge on whether management teams can demonstrate that the current slowdown is a temporary structural adjustment rather than a harbinger of broader economic stagnation. For now, the resilience of the banking sector and the stability of the energy industry continue to provide a solid foundation for the HoSE, offering a degree of insulation against the volatility seen in more consumer-sensitive sectors.
The data provided by VDSC underscores that while the peak of the growth cycle may be behind us for this year, the underlying health of the corporate sector remains intact, provided that businesses continue to prioritize operational discipline and long-term value creation over short-term earnings maximization.
